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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."