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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple pattern. It often functions as a type of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement wins the prize. In reality, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or simply the biggest surprise.

But this year's field is fundamentally unique. The group of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and longtime also-rans rising in unison. In an normal year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the ideal vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

Still