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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.

Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.